Update

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. I shall grant Undercover Dragon's request (vaguely) by saying that I have moved back to the U.S. for now. I am living on the West Coast, but have traveled across country a few times in the past months. I'll be working in the States for a while, but I'm already looking at potential plans to Oman, or at least the region in the not-too-distant future. In the meantime, it looks like I may be taking a business trip to the other side of Asia before long, but unfortunately I don't think I'm going to be able to get out of the U.S. for an adventure around Christmas time as I'd hoped.

Of note, while running today, I was listening to an al-Jazeera podcast of the Itijah al-Muakas show from July 29th about the Gulf Arab identity. I'll try to get some notes blogged about it before long, but it was a very interesting back and forth between two Arab intellectuals about whether the Gulf Arab identity is dying, or whether it is simply progressing in a world of globalization. If you understand Arabic and are interested in the Gulf, I recommend you take a listen. Some of the commentary was very interesting and the one gentleman's counterpoint to the "Gulf identity is dying" argument was excellent. He pointed out that, if you go to almost any major city in the world today, people are wearing the same kind of clothes, eating at the same restaurants, ila akheerihi (etc.). It isn't that the Gulf identity is dying (well, I guess it is in a way, but in this it is no different than any other identity), but it is that the Gulf identity lives on, subsumed into a more globalized milieu. If you look at it this way, I guess you could say that, far from being a dying culture, the Gulf is holding on to core cultural markers more tightly than most. The problem is, people in other regions seem to be more comfortable with the direction their culture is taking. In the Gulf, identity and culture is a constant topic of acrimonious debate.

Oman in the Washington Post

Today's Washington Post ran an article about Gulf countries steering jobs to citizens and the online article featured a picture of City Center's Starbucks. After the picture of a familiar place caught my eye, I read on:

Coffee shop manager Lalit Jadeja groaned as white-robed Omani officials swooped down on his Filipina cashier at one of the largest shopping malls in this Persian Gulf kingdom. It was the Omanization squad. ...
But economists and other analysts say the programs have made little difference so far. In some cases, as in hiring quotas for citizens, government efforts have angered employers who say the campaigns have fostered a sense of job entitlement among local young people. ...
The Middle East has the world's highest percentage of young people -- 30 percent of its population -- and the highest percentage of unemployed youths -- 25 percent.

The article goes on to quote one Arab professor from the UAE as saying that these youngsters can be opportunities or "ticking time bombs." The article also notes an aversion to private sector work in some countries.

Specific to Oman:

Even in Oman, one of the less affluent Gulf countries, oil profits are wiping out a culture of hard work.
In the middle of the desert, for example, an Indian stood alone near his home in a cargo crate. The man, wearing floppy leather sandals, a plaid shirt and a fuzzy pink towel, is one of the Gulf's new pool of subcontracted camel-herders -- tending camels for a Bedouin family that had retreated to air-conditioned comfort on a government-provided plot of land, several Omanis explained.

Perhaps this is another problem -- many youths, despite hard work, intelligence, and dedication, cannot get their dream jobs without "wasta." (See "The Yacoubian Building" or 3mara Yaqubi for an Egyptian story about wasta and career frustration gone terribly wrong)

From the article:

At the coffee shop in Muscat, Oman's capital, Jadeja flipped through the country's labor code in his cubbyhole of an office. He cited legal codes allowing Omanis generous leaves for studies, pilgrimages, funerals and other benefits.
Jadeja complained about a hiring quota that he said was compelling some employers to give young Omanis paychecks to stay home, just to have them on the payroll.
Behind the coffee shop's front counter, Rashdi bin Mohammed, a 21-year-old Omani, spoke sadly of trading his dream of becoming a pilot for a job serving lattes.
Bin Mohammed rejected the only public-sector jobs -- policeman or soldier -- he said were available to him as an Omani without "wasta," or connections. He said he shrugged off the looks and comments from friends who would rather keep accepting money from their parents than take an entry-level job.
"They just don't have the will to strive, to better themselves," he said.

Israelis Laugh, Arabs Ban

Adam Sandler (hardly one to be taken seriously) is making headlines because his latest movie "You Don't Mess with the Zohan," looks like it is going to be banned across the Middle East. The movie is being panned by reviewers, but is a big hit in Israel. Israelis, in my limited experience can be incredibly arrogant (and they love to admit this), but they know when and when not to take things too seriously. Adam Sandler comedies really have to fall in the second category almost every time.

In contrast, Arab states are making headlines by banning the movie, which its creators insist is "equal opportunity" in its offensiveness. Yet another instance in which the region plays into the stereotype to which it objects. This isn't the only movie the region has made headlines for banning. A Bollywood film has likewise been banned in the last week in UAE.

(Note: see the "headlines" link for a picture of Adam Sandler as a Mossad agent turned New York hairdresser to get an idea of just how harmlessly stupid the movie is.)

Economics, Capitalism, and Political Development

For those who are interested, one of the Economist's blogs is having a "summer book club" discussion of Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom.

As reported by the Gulf News and linked by Emirates Economist, Abu Dhabi, of all places, is having serious fuel shortages these days.

Washington Post reports on Saudi Arabia's plan for a post-oil economy. Major problems are that education is still poor and Saudi manufactures are extremely few.

These are all related. How? I don't really have the time to go into great detail, but the bottom line is that Gulf states have massive economic resources in their hands due to the riches beneath their soils. These states have been able to extract these resources with relatively little effort and development. The knowledge and expertise for this industry was rented, leased, bought, contracted, however you want to look at it, from developed economies. The technical know-how, the instruments, and the educated citizens were bought, brought to Arabia, and turned to at extracting oil. This came at quite a profit to the oil companies and their employees, but also to the state governments themselves. But, critically, in this jump to prosperity, the ruling elites were never forced to build a state: educated citizenry, capable institutions, far-reaching infrastructure, heavy industrial base, and the rule of law and sense of national identity that binds all of these things together.

Like the communist economic system, this state-centric economic system is showing signs of wear and tear as the Abu Dhabi story points out. An oil rich Emirate cannot supply its own citizens with gas because there is no incentive for companies to do so at unfavorable terms. Gulf states are realizing this, and are moving toward greater degrees of privatization, are attempting to improve infrastructure, and are revamping educational curricula. Yet, some of the most important aspects of state-building, the involvement and investment of the citizens, unified under a national identity and respect for the rule of law as enforced by the government, is lacking. This will be a major challenge in the coming years. How do Gulf rulers change their societies to create post-oil economies that employ citizens in a meaningful way and provide them and their government with a powerful income source without giving up the social provisions, price supports, and other handouts upon which they have based their legitimacy? And once citizens are more educated and involved, can the ruling elites keep the tight grip on the press and other levers of power that they now have?

The Gulf over the coming years will be a real-time laboratory in state-building as they attempt to jump to economic prominence that it took other countries centuries to create. While this project is starting with the economy, there is likely to be a great deal of spill-over into the political realm, which is a main topic of Friedman's book. If the Gulf is successful in creating a post-oil economy capable of maintaining some degree of the income it enjoyed from oil, the political sphere is likely to look quite different than it does today.

Youth Bulge and Unemployment

The Financial Times published a report about the youth bulge and unemployment in the Arab world. One part was particularly troubling to me:

The higher rates of annual growth – more than 5 per cent region-wide but nearly double digits in some Gulf states – have started to generate jobs, with regional unemployment estimated to have dropped to about 12.7 per cent. Yet anxiety over youth unemployment remains the most nagging concern as experts find that new jobs are going to foreign workers in the thriving construction industry or tend to be in the informal sector, leading to seasonal rather than sustainable employment.
“There is a boom in the region and youth unemployment is benefiting but the kinds of jobs created, especially in non-Gulf countries, are not necessarily the kind of jobs we need,” says Tarik Yousef, dean of the Dubai School of Government and an expert on youth employment. “They are low-paying jobs, without long-term contract, without social mobility, for people in the non-formal private sector, and in sectors not high on technology.” This job creation, he says, does not fit into the aspirations of typical youth in the region, whose idea of economic security is a well-paid overnment job with tenure and social mobility.

I cannot understand, when unemployment rates are well over 10 percent, why construction and other sectors are unacceptable. I look at the poor construction workers and understand why no one would really want to do it especially in this heat, but the South Asians are breaking their backs to make a better live for someone, whether themselves or families back home. But when I go to restaurants, stores, etc. and see that expats are brought in even to man the window at the McDonald's drive through, I cannot understand the logic. This is a taboo that must be broken (and it is, little by little in some areas) if the Gulf is ever to prepare itself for life after oil and gas.

There is a place for Gulf tradesmen in the construction industry. Gulf waiters at classy restaurants. Gulf managers at fast food places. This will not only help to ease the youth unemployment problems, but will also prepare young workers for better jobs down the road. I'm not a laborer now, but I worked as a laborer during college, as well as in the service industry. I learned just how hard "hard work" can be, and I also learned what it is like to be treated poorly by arrogant customers. Both lessons served me well and the overall experiences prepared me to do well when I started a career later.

Will there be a day when the glistening new industrial cities being put together in Saudi by S. Asian labor will be manned by Saudi factory workers? There must be if the state is to survive the end of oil.

I'll close with a quote from one of Bahrain's ministers (I can't remember if it was Min. of Labor or another portfolio). He was quoted in Sharq al-Awsat and some of the local Bahraini press a few months ago (as I remember it):
"A lord in England washes his own car on Saturday, but Gulf Arab calls for a foreign worker to bring him a glass of water sitting ten feet away."

How can this taboo be broken? Or must another solution be found for employment? Please comment.