Paranoid Conspiracy Theories

More from NYT's Michael Slackman in Cairo today, this time about 9/11 conspiracy theories and general mistrust of the U.S. government in the Arab world. I've personally heard many of the arguments he refers to. I think my favorite is that no Jews died in the 9/11 attacks so it must have been a Mossad operation. A representative proportion of the victims of the 9/11 attack were Jewish. What is more, Osama Bin Laden openly took credit for the attack. Yet, many in the Arab world still insist that this was the work of the U.S. or Israel, not an Arab.

"Look, I don’t believe what your governments and press say. It just can’t be true,” said Ahmed Issab, 26, a Syrian engineer who lives and works in the United Arab Emirates. “Why would they tell the truth? I think the U.S. organized this so that they had an excuse to invade Iraq for the oil.”

One of the things that strikes me about Arab conspiracy theories is that the Arabs expounding these theories often demean Arabs in their argumentation. I've heard a number that say something to the effect that al-Qaeda, or Iraqi insurgents, or Arabs in general aren't sophisticated enough to pull off what they are accused of pulling off. So it must be Mossad or the U.S. I just don't know how to view this "aw shucks, we're just simple peace-loving people who could never do something like that" line.

Again and again, people said they simply did not believe that a group of Arabs — like themselves — could possibly have waged such a successful operation against a superpower like the United States.

The problem with these theories comes when one is trying to find some middle ground to begin a dialogue. "Look, I know that the U.S. has done a lot of things that were wrong, but you have to admit that people have wronged America too. Let's try to each admit that there is culpability on both sides and then talk about how to fix it." "No, you don't understand, America made all of this up so that it can ______ (destroy Islam, take Iraq's oil, humiliate us, control the world, kill Arabs, take Morocco's resources ??!??, what?)." Part of the reason why spitting mad psychos go out and protest about teddy bears named Mohammed, looking to tear someone limb from limb is because they believe they and theirs have never done any wrong and everyone is out to get them.

Why? Why the conspiracies and paranoia? The sense of siege? A bit reason behind it is that Arab governments have used this ploy since right around 1948 to explain away all of their shortcomings. Conspiracy theories are the perfect explanation for almost any woe, neatly shifting the blame to outside forces and their shadowy conspirators inside the country with virtually no burden of proof. Internal unrest? Corruption? Government ineptitude? Military defeats? It can all be explained by conspiracies and blamed on the Zionists or imperialists. Think that you have information that disproves said conspiracy? "That's what they want you to believe." Year after year, Arab governments and their media mouthpieces have pushed such ideas and they have stuck.

So when faced with this wall of disbelief, how can U.S. public diplomacy ever succeed in winning hearts and minds? I don't think that it can, because those who will believe our public diplomacy are already convinced. Those that aren't convinced will never believe a word out of our mouths. The only way we can change perceptions is through a long term demonstration of results, not words, and, more importantly, the spread of more moderate perceptions from those in the region who can see both sides to those who cannot. Really, the hearts and minds can only be won from within the region, not through U.S. public diplomacy. Another major element of this is the state of the media in the Arab world. The level of self-censorship and paranoia is still high in many Arabic news sources. The growth of alternate media sources through satellite and the internet is helping to provide different perspectives, but it will take years to bring some out of their comfortable world of victimization and conspiracy and into a broader, more balanced worldview that can see culpability on more than one side of any argument.

Wishful Thinking

Sunday's New York Times ran a piece by Michael Kimmelman entitled "Watching 'Friends' in Gaza: Culture as a Moderating Force." While the online version was more appropriately subtitled "A Culture Clash," I found the article's vague suggestion that the popularity of Western culture was somehow a moderating force to be naive and misleading.

First, if one looks at the pictures that accompany the article (look at how the people at Roots are dressed, the table settings, and the landscaping) and some of the descriptions of where he is talking to people ("The club, a private retreat amid garbage and ruins was a whitewashed of bougainvillea..."), you can see that he's not hanging around the average, ordinary Gazan. He's hanging around with relatively wealth Gazans who choose to go to private clubs and trendy cafes like Roots. This is a skewed sample.

Second, just because people like to escape in Western culture, doesn't mean they become any more endeared to Western policies. The problem that the West and especially the U.S. has in the Middle East is not that Arabs hate Americans or American culture. They (mostly) don't. They hate U.S. policy. With a passion. American culture won't moderate that.

And in a third point, related to the second, people get what they want out of cultural products. For those that love the U.S. or the West, they may already be fairly moderate toward even Western policy and find more to love and long for in Western cultural products. For others, they still might like the Western cultural products, but they can still pick out supporting evidence for their worldview. I met a teen selling pirated American DVDs in Casablanca. After about two hours of him telling me how bad the U.S. was, how it was controlled by Jews, no Jews died in 9/11, everything is a conspiracy and everyone is out to destroy Islam, etc., I told him that not everything is a conspiracy. Not everyone is out to get them. Many people in America want to do good. He said, I know, but even you Americans do not trust your own government, so why should we? I watch your movies, I know your culture and all your movies prove that you believe the government is controlled by a small group of men who are conspiring to control the world. He started pointing out movies that had this sort of plot line on the table next to us and there, of course, were quite a few. So, don't think that our culture will inevitably break down walls. People take what they want and their worldview is often unchanged.