WSJ reports that despite rising oil prices (57% last year), top oil exporters' shipments dropped by 2.5% last year and are expected to trend similarly this year. This is a major aspect behind the continued high oil prices.
There are several phenomena behind this drop in exports. First, is the declining outputs from aging fields in some countries. As oil fields age, it takes more effort and energy to extract it, slowing exports down. Second, investment in new fields and technology is slowing in some areas due to economic troubles and rising taxation on new developments. Third, increasing internal demand for oil in producing countries is eating into their exports.
In places like Saudi, UAE, and I'd imagine Oman, too, rising development and lower-than-expected natural gas supplies is making states eat into their oil exports in order to fuel their own needs. It probably doesn't help that, in many places, developments are audacious in their energy consumption and that energy subsidies encourage profligacy.
Add to this the commonly discussed rising demand from China and India, and its no wonder that oil prices are so high. While some commentators in other venues are saying that oil can't stay this high over the medium-term, an analyst quoted in the article stated, "The sense in the market is that peak oil is here and that things will only get worse, but the verdict is still out on that."
Peak oil is the not-so-magical point at which oil production begins to decline permanently as we head toward depletion of the resource. When this happens, there will have to be some major adjustments to nearly every aspect of economic and industrial life in the world.
I read Karl Polyani's The Great Transformation a while ago. It is a cheery little book. In it, Polyani argues that nineteenth-century civilization and the Hundred Years' Peace rested on the balance of power system, the international gold standard, the self-regulating market, and the liberal state. When the economic foundations of this system came crashing down, the political system that had been built to perpetuate them was thrown into upheaval in the form of the most destructive war the world had ever seen (World War II).
I haven't thought long and hard enough about this, but it seems to me that a lot of the same conditions are present today. Oil is not equivalent to the gold standard, but going off oil will be somewhat similar economically and will probably throw the global economic system into turmoil. Furthermore, while many of the developed states have created sustainable social protections against the self-regulating market in the wake of WWII, many developing nations face the same struggles as to whether labor is to be treated as a freely-traded commodity or not. Polyani argues that the differing types of social protections created by states in the beginning of the twentieth century was behind the World War. This argument is furthered by a huge book called The Shield of Achilles by Philip Bobbitt. I think that these phenomenon may come to a head as oil starts to run out. Could there be another great transformation ahead?
Friday, May 30, 2008
Thursday, May 29, 2008
More on Currencies
News Briefs Oman just posted an article about inflation, which mentioned the same indications I mentioned in an earlier post that the U.S. may be giving a subtle green light to currency revaluation in the Gulf.
A Gulf News article is quoted in the post as saying, "If any country is found to be a currency manipulator, it is required to hold talks with the US government." The GN article goes on to state that only one country, China, has been labeled a currency manipulator and that was fourteen years ago, but this is not mentioned in the NBO post. I think that the verbiage that a country is "required" to hold talks is a bit of an overstatement of the power of the U.S. The U.S. cannot require any country to hold talks against its will, unless there is some sort of treaty obligation. Also, dropping the quote out of the context of the GN article, which also references one provision of the law without providing its legal context, gives a false impression of the evil big brother U.S.
The quote references U.S. Public Law 100-148, "The Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988." In section 3004, it states:
"The Secretary of the Treasury shall analyze on an annual basis the exchange rate policies of foreign countries, in consultation with the International Monetary Fund, and consider whether countries manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade. If the Secretary considers that such manipulation is occurring with respect to countries that (1) have material global current account surpluses; and (2) have significant bilateral trade surpluses with the United States, the Secretary of the Treasury shall take action to initiate negotiations with such foreign countries on an expedited basis, in the International Monetary Fund or bilaterally, for the purpose of ensuring that such countries regularly and promptly adjust the rate of exchange between their currencies and the United States dollar to permit effective balance of payments
adjustments and to eliminate the unfair advantage."
China, for comparison, has a significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.: $256 billion in 2007. Oman had a trade deficit of $18.4 million in 2007. UAE's trade deficit was $10 million. Saudi Arabia, due to its oil exports I imagine, had a trade surplus of $25 billion. Bahrain has a very small trade surplus. Therefore, the provisions of the U.S. law, which are not binding on the Gulf countries, do not even apply in the case of most GCC countries. I believe it would be extremely hard to label any GCC state as a currency manipulator in the case of a revaluation anyway. For instance, Kuwait does have a trade surplus of $1.6 billion, but it has already revalued its currency and has not gotten any wrist-slaps from the U.S.
So, I think that the U.S. was encouraging the Gulf countries to hold out on revaluation as long as they could, but the writing is on the wall at this point. And "encouraging" is probably a lot more accurate regarding U.S. power than "requiring." Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think that the U.S. asked and the Gulf leaders decided to oblige up to a point. If anyone has any insights or corrections to my economic ramblings (I'm on thin ice with my economic knowledge here) please comment.
A Gulf News article is quoted in the post as saying, "If any country is found to be a currency manipulator, it is required to hold talks with the US government." The GN article goes on to state that only one country, China, has been labeled a currency manipulator and that was fourteen years ago, but this is not mentioned in the NBO post. I think that the verbiage that a country is "required" to hold talks is a bit of an overstatement of the power of the U.S. The U.S. cannot require any country to hold talks against its will, unless there is some sort of treaty obligation. Also, dropping the quote out of the context of the GN article, which also references one provision of the law without providing its legal context, gives a false impression of the evil big brother U.S.
The quote references U.S. Public Law 100-148, "The Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988." In section 3004, it states:
"The Secretary of the Treasury shall analyze on an annual basis the exchange rate policies of foreign countries, in consultation with the International Monetary Fund, and consider whether countries manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade. If the Secretary considers that such manipulation is occurring with respect to countries that (1) have material global current account surpluses; and (2) have significant bilateral trade surpluses with the United States, the Secretary of the Treasury shall take action to initiate negotiations with such foreign countries on an expedited basis, in the International Monetary Fund or bilaterally, for the purpose of ensuring that such countries regularly and promptly adjust the rate of exchange between their currencies and the United States dollar to permit effective balance of payments
adjustments and to eliminate the unfair advantage."
China, for comparison, has a significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.: $256 billion in 2007. Oman had a trade deficit of $18.4 million in 2007. UAE's trade deficit was $10 million. Saudi Arabia, due to its oil exports I imagine, had a trade surplus of $25 billion. Bahrain has a very small trade surplus. Therefore, the provisions of the U.S. law, which are not binding on the Gulf countries, do not even apply in the case of most GCC countries. I believe it would be extremely hard to label any GCC state as a currency manipulator in the case of a revaluation anyway. For instance, Kuwait does have a trade surplus of $1.6 billion, but it has already revalued its currency and has not gotten any wrist-slaps from the U.S.
So, I think that the U.S. was encouraging the Gulf countries to hold out on revaluation as long as they could, but the writing is on the wall at this point. And "encouraging" is probably a lot more accurate regarding U.S. power than "requiring." Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think that the U.S. asked and the Gulf leaders decided to oblige up to a point. If anyone has any insights or corrections to my economic ramblings (I'm on thin ice with my economic knowledge here) please comment.
Rachel Ray, Terrorist Sympathizer
In a piece of completely asinine news from the U.S., Rachel Ray has been accused of sympathizing with terrorists because she wore a black-and-white kaffiyeh as a scarf for a photo in a Dunkin Donuts ad. (The conservative whackos who got up in arms about that would really be up in arms to know that DD is coming to a crazy Arab country like Oman).
I'll refrain from naming the conservative ass who "broke" the story in a blog just because I do not want to help with her personal publicity, but she says that the traditional Palestinian kaffiyeh has come to symbolize Muslim extremism and terrorism. Now, I have absolutely no tolerance for the sick and twisted brands of extremism that come out of the Middle East, but in my opinion, all of these people are cut of the same cloth. Their ideologies, self-righteousness, polemics, paranoid conspiracy theories, etc. are all very similar, but they just serve different selfish goals. Of course, the "Islamic" terrorists use violence, but I really think that the difference is not the ideology, but the situation. If these American whackos had grown up in Palestine, they'd be sicko terrorists too.
So, what needs to happen, is someone needs to invent a biometric whacko scanner. We scan everyone and send all the people who scan positive as whackos from all over the world to a fenced off area in the desert somewhere about the size of Gaza and let them work their ideological differences out. It wouldn't create world peace, but it definitely would rid us of the more ridiculous rhetoric out there. (By the way, the use of the phrase "sons of pigs and monkeys" when referring to a whole category of people qualifies you for the trip.)
As for Americans, they need to wake up and condemn the stupidity of commentators like this. It is this sort of extremism that plays right into the hands of the enemy (by enemy, I mean the enemy who kills innocent people, who bullies his own, and who uses the flag of righteousness to cover up his own greed and power-lust, not everyone the enemy looks like). As for the rest of the world, they need to do the same. Clean up your own playpen and stop blaming other people for your own faults, then maybe everyone can work together to find amenable solutions for major problems. Its impossible to work issues out when whole groups of people refuse to condemn idiotic, polemical rhetoric that sounds like the logic of an elementary school bully who can't read.
I'll refrain from naming the conservative ass who "broke" the story in a blog just because I do not want to help with her personal publicity, but she says that the traditional Palestinian kaffiyeh has come to symbolize Muslim extremism and terrorism. Now, I have absolutely no tolerance for the sick and twisted brands of extremism that come out of the Middle East, but in my opinion, all of these people are cut of the same cloth. Their ideologies, self-righteousness, polemics, paranoid conspiracy theories, etc. are all very similar, but they just serve different selfish goals. Of course, the "Islamic" terrorists use violence, but I really think that the difference is not the ideology, but the situation. If these American whackos had grown up in Palestine, they'd be sicko terrorists too.
So, what needs to happen, is someone needs to invent a biometric whacko scanner. We scan everyone and send all the people who scan positive as whackos from all over the world to a fenced off area in the desert somewhere about the size of Gaza and let them work their ideological differences out. It wouldn't create world peace, but it definitely would rid us of the more ridiculous rhetoric out there. (By the way, the use of the phrase "sons of pigs and monkeys" when referring to a whole category of people qualifies you for the trip.)
As for Americans, they need to wake up and condemn the stupidity of commentators like this. It is this sort of extremism that plays right into the hands of the enemy (by enemy, I mean the enemy who kills innocent people, who bullies his own, and who uses the flag of righteousness to cover up his own greed and power-lust, not everyone the enemy looks like). As for the rest of the world, they need to do the same. Clean up your own playpen and stop blaming other people for your own faults, then maybe everyone can work together to find amenable solutions for major problems. Its impossible to work issues out when whole groups of people refuse to condemn idiotic, polemical rhetoric that sounds like the logic of an elementary school bully who can't read.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Complimentary SUV Parking Spots
I think its great that City Center has provided complimentary SUV parking spots in its garage. Its hard to see from this picture (the guy was getting in his car and I didn't want to cause any problems or have issues with getting the liscencse plate in the pic) but these nifty spots have enough room (about a shopping cart's width) to put the driver's side tires on pavement, with the other tires up on the curb. This allows people with big new SUVs to park right up near the entry doors, while also making sure their suspension is getting the exercise it needs.
American malls need to get on the ball and start offering these parking spots, as we all know that it would be the most intense off-roading experience most U.S. SUVs or trucks ever face.
Now, be sure not to put your shopping cart behind these SUVs, as the high ride and slight tilt mean that the driver won't be able to see it. Place the cart in its proper spot: behind the small white car a few spots down.
Green Light to Drop Dollar Peg?
MEED reports that the U.S. has effectively given GCC countries the green light to drop their dollar peg, according to an analysis of U.S. Treasury statements by Merrill Lynch. The report estimates that Qatar and UAE will move to a currency basket peg within a few months.
If the GCC does not move in concert, serious currency speculation may be in store.
The news was quickly picked up in Oman. It was the subject of today's "Iba'd Iqtisadiya" on Radio Sultanate of Oman, a daily economic analysis piece.
If the GCC does not move in concert, serious currency speculation may be in store.
The news was quickly picked up in Oman. It was the subject of today's "Iba'd Iqtisadiya" on Radio Sultanate of Oman, a daily economic analysis piece.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Expats Thinking About a Contract in Saudi?
If you have kids, do some research on recent policy changes. SaudiJeans reports that the Saudi Ministry of Education has declared that Saudis will no longer be granted permission to attend international schools and that international students will have to attend the school corresponding to their nationality. I did not find a news story on the decision itself, but SaudiJeans linked a letter published on the Arab News website from a mother objecting to the decision.
If the decision is not recognized as the train wreck that it is and rescinded, I imagine the international school system in Saudi will be quite a mess over the next few years if it is anything like Oman where students are jumbled up according to their educational preferences more than nationality.
In the post, there is a picture of the Minister of Education, the head of the notoriously religiously conservative education ministry. He does not wear the ghutra, the black cord that the majority of Gulf Arabs wear to keep the shemagh (the scarf) in place. My understanding is that this is a statement: conservative Muslims of a certain milieu don't wear the ghutra because only God wears a crown. The Vice and Virtue "Police" also don't wear ghutras.
If the decision is not recognized as the train wreck that it is and rescinded, I imagine the international school system in Saudi will be quite a mess over the next few years if it is anything like Oman where students are jumbled up according to their educational preferences more than nationality.
In the post, there is a picture of the Minister of Education, the head of the notoriously religiously conservative education ministry. He does not wear the ghutra, the black cord that the majority of Gulf Arabs wear to keep the shemagh (the scarf) in place. My understanding is that this is a statement: conservative Muslims of a certain milieu don't wear the ghutra because only God wears a crown. The Vice and Virtue "Police" also don't wear ghutras.
What's Hot at Borders
Here's what's hot at Borders. A few of the titles on their display table in the Arabic section:
Facing toward the storefront (top picture)
-Top row left to right: a book about Sultan Qaboos (head of state of Oman), "Mussolini" (I forget the subtitle), "Rasputin," "Zionist Leaders," "New York and the Reign of Fear."
-Top row left to right: a book about Sultan Qaboos (head of state of Oman), "Mussolini" (I forget the subtitle), "Rasputin," "Zionist Leaders," "New York and the Reign of Fear."
-2nd row: something about spies, something about the execution of Arab leaders, "Saddam Wasn't Executed: ???, American Lies and the Game of Look-Alikes" (وعدي وقصي لم يقتلا أكاذيب أمريكا ولعبة الشبيه), last book on right "Nuclear Secrets."
-3rd row: "Armageddon: The End of America and Israel," "Osama," ?, "Behind Every Dictator is a...," I forget the last title, but there is a picture of Condi Rice, George Bush, and Dick Cheney on the cover and the top copy had a bunch of x's scratched over Bush's face.
-Bottom row: "Diary of an Arab Diplomat," "Evildoers/Malcontents of History," "Political Assassinations," "Saddam Wasn't Executed," "A Spy in the President's Palace" (with a black Star of David on the cover).
Facing to the rear: (bottom pic)
-Top row, left to right from 2nd book: "Censorship and Redaction (blacking out information) in the American Press," "Years of Hope," "Stalin (I forget the subtitle and can't make it out)" and "Karl Marx, Man Against Religions."
-Middle row, from 2nd book: "Arab Banana Republics," "Loss/Ruin of Nations," translation of former U.S. Congressman Paul Findlay's "They Dare to Speak Out: People and Institutions Confront Israel's Lobby."
-Bottom row, from 2nd book (again): "The Israeli Lobby," Hitler's "Mein Kampf," "Blackwater: Armies of Darkness/Oppression," and the last one is something about changes in the Arabian peninsula, but I forget the details.
And the for the Grand Prize:
Grammatically and semantically, this translation may not be perfect, but the essence is there. If anyone has any suggestions, please comment. I'm not making this up:
"Speeding the Emergence of the Anti-Christ: Zionism and Devil Worship Pave the Way for the Emergence of the Anti-Christ with his Flying Saucers from the Bermuda Triangle."
Grammatically and semantically, this translation may not be perfect, but the essence is there. If anyone has any suggestions, please comment. I'm not making this up:
"Speeding the Emergence of the Anti-Christ: Zionism and Devil Worship Pave the Way for the Emergence of the Anti-Christ with his Flying Saucers from the Bermuda Triangle."
Saudi Virtue
The BBC wrote about the outrage of human rights groups when charges against a Saudi couple for, amongst other things, tying their maid up outside for a month with and leaving her without food for some time were dropped. This came in after a see-saw of court rulings that at one point had the maid sentenced to 79 lashes for falsely accusing her employers. The abuse was so bad that she lost several digits to gangrene, so its not like the case was hard to prove.
While such abuse is certainly not widespread, it is also not unheard-of in Saudi and the Gulf in general. As I've said elsewhere, it astounds me that, in a culture where dressing provocatively is haram, there is not a greater outcry against domestic abuse of all kinds.
While such abuse is certainly not widespread, it is also not unheard-of in Saudi and the Gulf in general. As I've said elsewhere, it astounds me that, in a culture where dressing provocatively is haram, there is not a greater outcry against domestic abuse of all kinds.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Carpooling in UAE
There was a recent post at the UAE Community Blog regarding new regulations on legal carpooling. The full details can be found at the link, but to make a long story short, in an effort supposedly aimed at cutting down on illegal taxis, UAE authorities have created a laborious registration scheme, by which normal carpooling workers can register a car and no more than a total of 4 passengers to be official carpoolers. The authorities will do background checks on all concerned, then grant a permit. Any carpooling outside of these restrictions would be illegal.
A few points:
-Let's assume that the big-brother-esque aspect of the background checks is just well-intentioned but overzealous bureaucracy.
-If the intention is to protect citizens from illegal taxis, wouldn't other measures be much more efficient and effective than the very laborious and bureaucratically-expensive registration process? Undercover stings on the taxis? Simple surveillance of likely pick-up spots? Provision of more official taxis to meet the demand?
This falls in on the previous post about Gulf branding. If UAE wants to become a global business hub, it has to quickly realize that it needs to make bureaucratic procedures and daily life more efficient and less intrusive, not more so.
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out and whether the bureaucracy is responsive to the moans of protest it is raising. If the government can be adaptive in this and many other situations, then the UAE business model has a chance. If the government keeps putting stumbling blocks in front of business and doesn't adapt to complaints, all those pretty high rises are going to be looking shabby and empty before too long.
A few points:
-Let's assume that the big-brother-esque aspect of the background checks is just well-intentioned but overzealous bureaucracy.
-If the intention is to protect citizens from illegal taxis, wouldn't other measures be much more efficient and effective than the very laborious and bureaucratically-expensive registration process? Undercover stings on the taxis? Simple surveillance of likely pick-up spots? Provision of more official taxis to meet the demand?
This falls in on the previous post about Gulf branding. If UAE wants to become a global business hub, it has to quickly realize that it needs to make bureaucratic procedures and daily life more efficient and less intrusive, not more so.
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out and whether the bureaucracy is responsive to the moans of protest it is raising. If the government can be adaptive in this and many other situations, then the UAE business model has a chance. If the government keeps putting stumbling blocks in front of business and doesn't adapt to complaints, all those pretty high rises are going to be looking shabby and empty before too long.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Muscat Anger Sharks
A trip to Lulu on a bright, hot Friday morning got the anger sharks swimming in my head. The throng of people inside was OK, but the parking lot was what set me over the edge. In Oman, we seem to have a tradition of placing our shopping carts/trolleys behind other peoples' cars so they have to move your cart and theirs to pull their car out. Well, this art form is being taken to new heights of breathtaking arrogance and self-centered-ness. There were, no kidding, clumps of 15 to 20 carts stacked strategically behind a few cars out of every row near the store. So the poor bastard whose car the cart stack is centered on will have about 20 minutes of clearing carts in 110 degree weather with over 80 percent humidity before he or she can pull out.
I saw one person in the act, an Indian lady (I'm sure all races and creeds are well-represented in this act so don't get offended), shoving a cart into the stack. I stopped my car and asked why she thought it was OK to put her cart behind someone else's car. In typical logic, she got mad at me and said it wasn't her cart. Ok, so someone put their cart behind her car, so she fixed it, not by putting it somewhere between cars or in the lane where carts can be put without blocking anyone, but by screwing someone else over (the guy with 15 carts behind his car already). Now, I'm sure she was astounded that I stopped to say something, because no one does that. But, in typical fashion, the guy behind me started honking about 2 seconds after I stopped because its OK to be a total confrontational ass when you are surrounded by metal.
I would give a month's pay to see some young, gym rat, Omani guy with biceps the size of my thighs catch someone in the act and then throw the cart through the offender's back window. A few random acts of confrontational kindness like this would go a long way toward making people think twice before inconveniencing someone else with their cart. Now taking a step back from anger shark fantasy land, next time you see someone do this, try something like kindly asking them not to inconvenience others, or simply pushing the cart out of the way to set the example. If you are someone who does this, take a second out of your narrow, self-centered life and think about whether you would like to be the person spending your morning in the heat clearing away 20 carts so you can pull out of the supermarket.
I really just can't understand the mindset and the lack of concern for others that prompts people to inconvenience each other so freely...
I saw one person in the act, an Indian lady (I'm sure all races and creeds are well-represented in this act so don't get offended), shoving a cart into the stack. I stopped my car and asked why she thought it was OK to put her cart behind someone else's car. In typical logic, she got mad at me and said it wasn't her cart. Ok, so someone put their cart behind her car, so she fixed it, not by putting it somewhere between cars or in the lane where carts can be put without blocking anyone, but by screwing someone else over (the guy with 15 carts behind his car already). Now, I'm sure she was astounded that I stopped to say something, because no one does that. But, in typical fashion, the guy behind me started honking about 2 seconds after I stopped because its OK to be a total confrontational ass when you are surrounded by metal.
I would give a month's pay to see some young, gym rat, Omani guy with biceps the size of my thighs catch someone in the act and then throw the cart through the offender's back window. A few random acts of confrontational kindness like this would go a long way toward making people think twice before inconveniencing someone else with their cart. Now taking a step back from anger shark fantasy land, next time you see someone do this, try something like kindly asking them not to inconvenience others, or simply pushing the cart out of the way to set the example. If you are someone who does this, take a second out of your narrow, self-centered life and think about whether you would like to be the person spending your morning in the heat clearing away 20 carts so you can pull out of the supermarket.
I really just can't understand the mindset and the lack of concern for others that prompts people to inconvenience each other so freely...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Tranquil Oman
Oman fared well in the Economist Intelligence Unit's rankings for "peace and security," coming in at 1st place among Arab countries, 3rd in Asia, and 22nd worldwide.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Gulf Branding
Secret Dubai Diary posted some very thought provoking comments regarding what countries of the region, especially Dubai, will need to do in order to build a lasting tourism sector.
If the Gulf countries really want to capitalize on tourism revenues (or thrive as a global business hub for that matter), it seems there will be some thorny issues to consider, as Secret Dubai Diary points out. Who will want to walk around attractions like Dubailand on holiday in the heat if they cannot have a bottle of water and an ice cream cone? How will business address the fall of revenue as visitors shy away when Ramadan hits at peak times? I'm not sure of the laws in Dubai, but if these businesses are able to get permission to serve food and drink in the day during Ramadan, will there be blow-back from sectors of the Muslim population? Booze is less of an issue, but when non-Muslims consider paying the big bucks it takes to stay in Dubai for holiday, many people will decide to go elsewhere if they can't tip a few to unwind from their stressful lives.
At a more subtle level, I have heard and read many comments of both citizens and expats who get indignant about how visitors to Dubai dress (i.e. scantily clad women in the malls). I'm a bit torn on this. I feel like I am a guest living in Oman, so I have no problem respecting the local culture. Yet, when I go to Dubai, a place that wants to make revenue off of drawing in visitors from all over the world who pay ridiculous amounts to stay there, I feel as if people should be a bit more at liberty to dress and do as they please. If the citizens of Dubai feel differently, they and their leadership are going to have to do some serious soul-searching as to whether they want to become a global brand and sell their soul for the massive revenues or hold on to their conservatism and find another way to make money. They may have already crossed the Rubicon, though, as the massive amount of speculatory construction there is going to demand continued economic development to stave off an implosion.
It seems to me that Oman's tourism model is a bit different. Whereas Dubai is making itself up in the model of cities that are decidedly not conservative (who hasn't heard a comparison of Dubai to "Sin City" Las Vegas), Oman is trying to attract people to its natural beauty and quiet traditional settings. In this, Oman does not have to give up quite as much of its identity to draw people to this niche market.
In a related story on Gulf brands, Al-Jazeera English is having a difficult time breaking into the critical American market. That's no surprise. I haven't watched AJ English much. I find AJ Arabic to be less of the devil-child than many Americans make it out to be, especially when you consider the audience it is aimed at. If you look at the differences between CNN and FoxNews, and realize that their audiences think that both are fair and balanced, you have to imagine that Arab audiences are going to demand a much different spin for their news. This is all well and good if AJ is a brand for the Arab world. If AJ wants to become a global brand, it has quite a bit of work to do to clean up its image in the West. Marketing and business have little to do with fairness. If you please one market by pissing another market off, don't expect the other market to come running to you just because you start broadcasting in their language. Again, the question is: do you want to give up some of your freedom to be provocative in order to make money as a global brand or do you want to maintain what you see as your integrity at the expense of revenue?
If the Gulf countries really want to capitalize on tourism revenues (or thrive as a global business hub for that matter), it seems there will be some thorny issues to consider, as Secret Dubai Diary points out. Who will want to walk around attractions like Dubailand on holiday in the heat if they cannot have a bottle of water and an ice cream cone? How will business address the fall of revenue as visitors shy away when Ramadan hits at peak times? I'm not sure of the laws in Dubai, but if these businesses are able to get permission to serve food and drink in the day during Ramadan, will there be blow-back from sectors of the Muslim population? Booze is less of an issue, but when non-Muslims consider paying the big bucks it takes to stay in Dubai for holiday, many people will decide to go elsewhere if they can't tip a few to unwind from their stressful lives.
At a more subtle level, I have heard and read many comments of both citizens and expats who get indignant about how visitors to Dubai dress (i.e. scantily clad women in the malls). I'm a bit torn on this. I feel like I am a guest living in Oman, so I have no problem respecting the local culture. Yet, when I go to Dubai, a place that wants to make revenue off of drawing in visitors from all over the world who pay ridiculous amounts to stay there, I feel as if people should be a bit more at liberty to dress and do as they please. If the citizens of Dubai feel differently, they and their leadership are going to have to do some serious soul-searching as to whether they want to become a global brand and sell their soul for the massive revenues or hold on to their conservatism and find another way to make money. They may have already crossed the Rubicon, though, as the massive amount of speculatory construction there is going to demand continued economic development to stave off an implosion.
It seems to me that Oman's tourism model is a bit different. Whereas Dubai is making itself up in the model of cities that are decidedly not conservative (who hasn't heard a comparison of Dubai to "Sin City" Las Vegas), Oman is trying to attract people to its natural beauty and quiet traditional settings. In this, Oman does not have to give up quite as much of its identity to draw people to this niche market.
In a related story on Gulf brands, Al-Jazeera English is having a difficult time breaking into the critical American market. That's no surprise. I haven't watched AJ English much. I find AJ Arabic to be less of the devil-child than many Americans make it out to be, especially when you consider the audience it is aimed at. If you look at the differences between CNN and FoxNews, and realize that their audiences think that both are fair and balanced, you have to imagine that Arab audiences are going to demand a much different spin for their news. This is all well and good if AJ is a brand for the Arab world. If AJ wants to become a global brand, it has quite a bit of work to do to clean up its image in the West. Marketing and business have little to do with fairness. If you please one market by pissing another market off, don't expect the other market to come running to you just because you start broadcasting in their language. Again, the question is: do you want to give up some of your freedom to be provocative in order to make money as a global brand or do you want to maintain what you see as your integrity at the expense of revenue?
Inflation in Oman Hits 11.5%
Inflation in Oman hit 11.5% in March, the highest level in 18 years. There are numerous economic explanations for this. What is the buzz around Oman as to why the prices are rising so quickly and how it should be addressed?
Economic theory is great, but public perception is a much stronger guide as to how people will react to continued high prices and at whom they point the finger...
Economic theory is great, but public perception is a much stronger guide as to how people will react to continued high prices and at whom they point the finger...
The Sixtieth Anniversary of the Nakba
Al-Watan published an editorial on the sixtieth anniversary of the Nakba today. The Nakba is the catastrophe of the Palestinians who left and were ejected from their lands as the Israeli state was established in 1948. Interestingly, the editorial strikes an uncompromising tone saying that "the Palestinians have a deep understanding that they will inevitably return [to their lands] carrying the keys of their houses of old." A recent Brookings Institution/Zogby poll found that 73 percent of Arabs polled are ready for a "just and comprehensive peace with Israel if Israel is willing to return all the territories occupied in the 1967 war including East Jerusalem," although 52 percent do not believe this will ever happen. The poll did not address the right of return, but 19 percent of those polled said that Arabs should continue the fight even if Israel returns the lands occupied in '67. So, with the sixtieth anniversary upon us, it seems there is little consensus, even rhetorically, as to what is expected and what is desired to end the conflict. Do people truly believe that the Palestinians will inevitably return to their homes of old? Is this possible?
On another note, I read Leo Africanus by Amin Maalouf recently on a trip through Andalusia and Morocco. One passage struck me. Leo's uncle, an Andalusian notable, speaking of his unwillingness to tell Andalusian exiles in Fes that they will never return to their homes, says, “Perhaps one day it may be necessary for someone to dare to teach them to look unflinchingly at their defeat, to explain to them that in order to get to one’s feet again one must first admit that one is down on the ground. Perhaps someone will have to tell them the truth one day. But I myself do not have the courage to do so.”
On another note, I read Leo Africanus by Amin Maalouf recently on a trip through Andalusia and Morocco. One passage struck me. Leo's uncle, an Andalusian notable, speaking of his unwillingness to tell Andalusian exiles in Fes that they will never return to their homes, says, “Perhaps one day it may be necessary for someone to dare to teach them to look unflinchingly at their defeat, to explain to them that in order to get to one’s feet again one must first admit that one is down on the ground. Perhaps someone will have to tell them the truth one day. But I myself do not have the courage to do so.”
Saturday, May 17, 2008
NYT Baghdad Blog - Great improvements in Iraq, but will they last?
The New York Times has an interesting Baghdad blog with entries frequently written by its Iraqi staffers. The latest entry was written by an Iraqi who recently visited Basra. He notes significant improvements in security and stability there since February (other posts have noted similar improvements in other areas). Yet, from his own observations and the comments of Basra residents, it seems that the Mahdi Army is just biding its time, waiting until the Iraqi Army pulls out so they can move back in.
Serious progress has been made. Rogue elements of the Mahdi Army have been targeted and Sadr has kept up his truce, grudgingly. Many Sunni insurgent groups have become the "Sons of Iraq" like minutemen fighting the extremists. But... they all still have their guns and their organizations are intact. Without political progress and the growth of governmental capacity, this progress could easily be lost in a few weeks of violence. One person with access to key people on both the American and Iraqi sides said recently something to the effect of, "Its not that something could happen to set off the violence again, its that the violence will return if nothing happens" in the form of reconciliation and governmental progress.
Serious progress has been made. Rogue elements of the Mahdi Army have been targeted and Sadr has kept up his truce, grudgingly. Many Sunni insurgent groups have become the "Sons of Iraq" like minutemen fighting the extremists. But... they all still have their guns and their organizations are intact. Without political progress and the growth of governmental capacity, this progress could easily be lost in a few weeks of violence. One person with access to key people on both the American and Iraqi sides said recently something to the effect of, "Its not that something could happen to set off the violence again, its that the violence will return if nothing happens" in the form of reconciliation and governmental progress.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Ali al-Wardi Books in Muscat?
Does anyone know if/where I might find books by the Iraqi sociologist Ali al-Wardi in Muscat? I'm looking for them in Arabic, but haven't really tried all that hard yet. I imagine it would have to be a specialty bookstore and I don't really know where one might be.
Love in Saudi Arabia
The New York Times has recently published some articles and blog entries on love, life, and the pursuit of happiness for young people in Saudi Arabia. The conservative atmosphere prevents almost all contact between the sexes, leading (as always with young adults) to some creative work-arounds. Saudi guys chase girls around, trying to pass off their phone numbers, for instance as is discussed here. The girls' side of things is here. The boys' is here.
Young men, especially, chafe under these restrictions, not only because they want to chase girls, but also because there's not a whole lot else for them to do. There are few jobs that Saudi teens can do and there are few other outlets. They are barred from many malls as single males, there aren't any movie theaters, and precious few sports clubs. Beside chasing girls around and "numbering" them, many guys head out to the highways and streets to "drift" (tefheet in Arabic). This is a crazy past-time in which they zoom around in small Eastern cars, skidding and sliding on the pavement. This usually happens at night. During the daytime you can see the skid marks on prime sections of road and parking lots.
While many might think that the young men who grew up longing for more opportunities might change things later on down the line, a lot of men, once they have families, want to keep hoodlums like they used to be away from their girls. I've talked to more than one Saudi dad who loved the chance to get away and enjoy himself outside the Kingdom, for example, but were not interested in taking their daughters into such an environment. So, are changes in the offing or will things stay the same for some time?
For less conservative Gulf countries, these problems aren't as sharp, but the restrictions and ambitions are still clashing.
Young men, especially, chafe under these restrictions, not only because they want to chase girls, but also because there's not a whole lot else for them to do. There are few jobs that Saudi teens can do and there are few other outlets. They are barred from many malls as single males, there aren't any movie theaters, and precious few sports clubs. Beside chasing girls around and "numbering" them, many guys head out to the highways and streets to "drift" (tefheet in Arabic). This is a crazy past-time in which they zoom around in small Eastern cars, skidding and sliding on the pavement. This usually happens at night. During the daytime you can see the skid marks on prime sections of road and parking lots.
While many might think that the young men who grew up longing for more opportunities might change things later on down the line, a lot of men, once they have families, want to keep hoodlums like they used to be away from their girls. I've talked to more than one Saudi dad who loved the chance to get away and enjoy himself outside the Kingdom, for example, but were not interested in taking their daughters into such an environment. So, are changes in the offing or will things stay the same for some time?
For less conservative Gulf countries, these problems aren't as sharp, but the restrictions and ambitions are still clashing.
First Post
I am not sure that I will have the time to keep up with frequent posts on this blog, but I'm going to give it a shot. In many cases, I might just link items I think are important reading, hoping to glean others' thoughts on them. I am an American traveler of sorts, living in Oman for now. I am professionally interested in the Middle East and its people, politics, and culture (all of which can be maddeningly difficult to understand at times). My comments may often cause dismay or disdain, but they are all in an attempt to analyze and understand the things I see. I think there is a great deal to be learned by stirring things up a bit in a forum where people can discuss their thoughts without the face-to-face interaction that can lead to false politeness or physical hostility. Hopefully, people will logically argue their points of view, whether they agree with my comments or not. We can all learn through this.
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