NYT Baghdad Blog - Great improvements in Iraq, but will they last?

The New York Times has an interesting Baghdad blog with entries frequently written by its Iraqi staffers. The latest entry was written by an Iraqi who recently visited Basra. He notes significant improvements in security and stability there since February (other posts have noted similar improvements in other areas). Yet, from his own observations and the comments of Basra residents, it seems that the Mahdi Army is just biding its time, waiting until the Iraqi Army pulls out so they can move back in.

Serious progress has been made. Rogue elements of the Mahdi Army have been targeted and Sadr has kept up his truce, grudgingly. Many Sunni insurgent groups have become the "Sons of Iraq" like minutemen fighting the extremists. But... they all still have their guns and their organizations are intact. Without political progress and the growth of governmental capacity, this progress could easily be lost in a few weeks of violence. One person with access to key people on both the American and Iraqi sides said recently something to the effect of, "Its not that something could happen to set off the violence again, its that the violence will return if nothing happens" in the form of reconciliation and governmental progress.